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Veľké Revištia vs Spišské Podhradie — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
FT
0 – 3
Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
9/20/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 9Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia56%
×Draw21%
Spišské Podhradie23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
2.15
Spišské Podhradie
1.33

Veľké Revištia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 65 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Spišské Podhradie
0.80

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Spišské Podhradie
2.86

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Spišské Podhradie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
77%
Veľké Revištia or Spišské Podhradie
79%
Draw or Spišské Podhradie
44%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
34%
Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
88%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
63%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
36%
Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
74%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
38%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
71%
Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
56%
level
21%
Spišské Podhradie scores more
23%

Veľké Revištia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Veľké Revištia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Veľké Revištia 0–3 Spišské Podhradie

Spišské Podhradie beat Veľké Revištia 3-0 in 3. liga - East on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.