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Spišské Podhradie vs Veľké Revištia — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
CANC
14:30
Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
5/9/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Spišské Podhradie61%
×Draw19%
Veľké Revištia20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišské Podhradie
2.36
Veľké Revištia
1.27

Spišské Podhradie creates 86% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 8 away

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.47
Veľké Revištia
0.63

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.92
Veľké Revištia
3.25

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par
Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Veľké Revištia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw
80%
Spišské Podhradie or Veľké Revištia
81%
Draw or Veľké Revištia
39%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
39%
Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
90%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
68%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
41%
Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
72%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
36%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
76%
Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Veľké Revištia away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.36

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more
61%
level
19%
Veľké Revištia scores more
20%

Spišské Podhradie at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Spišské Podhradie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spišské Podhradie face Veľké Revištia (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Spišské Podhradie hosting Veľké Revištia. Match starts May 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.