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Veľké Revištia vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
FT
2 – 0
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
9/6/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 7Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia65%
×Draw18%
Pokrok Krompachy17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
2.54
Pokrok Krompachy
1.24

Veľké Revištia creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
83%
Veľké Revištia or Pokrok Krompachy
82%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
35%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
44%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
92%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
72%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
46%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
71%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
35%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
79%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.54

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
65%
level
18%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
17%

Veľké Revištia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Veľké Revištia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veľké Revištia vs Pokrok Krompachy

Veľké Revištia beat Pokrok Krompachy 2-0 in 3. liga - East on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.