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Pokrok Krompachy vs Veľké Revištia — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
CANC
14:00
Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
4/25/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 22Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy56%
×Draw20%
Veľké Revištia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
2.24
Veľké Revištia
1.43

Pokrok Krompachy creates 57% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Veľké Revištia
0.63

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Veľké Revištia
3.25

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Veľké Revištia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
76%
Pokrok Krompachy or Veľké Revištia
80%
Draw or Veľké Revištia
44%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
34%
Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
89%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
65%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
38%
Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
76%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
42%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
70%
Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Veľké Revištia away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.24

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
56%
level
20%
Veľké Revištia scores more
24%

Pokrok Krompachy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pokrok Krompachy face Veľké Revištia (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Pokrok Krompachy hosting Veľké Revištia. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pokrok Krompachy host Veľké Revištia at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.