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Veľké Revištia vs Milénium — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
FT
3 – 1
Milénium
Milénium
8/23/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 5Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia55%
×Draw21%
Milénium24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
2.09
Milénium
1.31

Veľké Revištia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Milénium
0.75

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Milénium
2.75

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Milénium+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Milénium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
76%
Veľké Revištia or Milénium
79%
Draw or Milénium
45%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
33%
Milénium wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
88%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
62%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
34%
Milénium 1+ goals
73%
Milénium 2+ goals
38%
Milénium 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
70%
Milénium (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Milénium away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Milénium defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.09

Milénium attack 0.75 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
55%
level
21%
Milénium scores more
24%

Veľké Revištia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Veľké Revištia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veľké Revištia vs Milénium

Veľké Revištia beat Milénium 3-1 in 3. liga - East on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.