Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milénium vs Veľké Revištia — 3. liga - East 2020

Milénium
Milénium
CANC
13:30
Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
4/11/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 20Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium54%
×Draw20%
Veľké Revištia26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milénium
2.27
Veľké Revištia
1.53

Milénium creates 48% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Milénium
1.29
Veľké Revištia
0.63

allows per match

Milénium
2.43
Veľké Revištia
3.25

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par
Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Veľké Revištia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Milénium or draw
74%
Milénium or Veľké Revištia
80%
Draw or Veľké Revištia
46%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+
33%
Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals
90%
Milénium 2+ goals
66%
Milénium 3+ goals
39%
Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
78%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
45%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)
68%
Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Veľké Revištia away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Milénium scores more
54%
level
20%
Veľké Revištia scores more
26%

Milénium at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Milénium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Milénium face Veľké Revištia (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Milénium hosting Veľké Revištia. Match starts April 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Milénium host Veľké Revištia at Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.