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Veľké Revištia vs Družstevník Plavnica — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
FT
2 – 2
Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
8/5/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 2Futbalový štadión Veľké Revištia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Veľké Revištia46%
×Draw22%
Družstevník Plavnica31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
1.88
Družstevník Plavnica
1.52

Veľké Revištia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Družstevník Plavnica
1.17

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Družstevník Plavnica
2.33

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
69%
Veľké Revištia or Družstevník Plavnica
78%
Draw or Družstevník Plavnica
54%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
25%
Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
85%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
56%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
29%
Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
78%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
45%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
59%
Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
46%
level
22%
Družstevník Plavnica scores more
31%

Veľké Revištia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Veľké Revištia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Veľké Revištia 2–2 Družstevník Plavnica

Veľké Revištia and Družstevník Plavnica drew 2-2 in 3. liga - East on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Veľké Revištia in Veľké Revištia.