Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Velké Meziříčí vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
CANC
15:30
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
6/20/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 33Stadión U Tržiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Velké Meziříčí33%
×Draw23%
Odra Petřkovice44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Meziříčí
1.46
Odra Petřkovice
1.72

Odra Petřkovice creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 12 away

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.83
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.60
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw
56%
Velké Meziříčí or Odra Petřkovice
77%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
67%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
15%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
77%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
43%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
18%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
82%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
51%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
43%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.83 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.46

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more
33%
level
23%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
44%

Odra Petřkovice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Velké Meziříčí host Odra Petřkovice

June 20, 2021: Velké Meziříčí take on Odra Petřkovice in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Velké Meziříčí host Odra Petřkovice at Stadión U Tržiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.