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Odra Petřkovice vs Velké Meziříčí — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
FT
1 – 0
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
9/9/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 16Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice59%
×Draw21%
Velké Meziříčí20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
2.09
Velké Meziříčí
1.15

Odra Petřkovice creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Velké Meziříčí
1.18

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Velké Meziříčí
2.53

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
80%
Odra Petřkovice or Velké Meziříčí
79%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
41%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
36%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
88%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
62%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
34%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
68%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
32%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
74%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Velké Meziříčí defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.09

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.18 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
59%
level
21%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
20%

Odra Petřkovice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Petřkovice vs Velké Meziříčí

Odra Petřkovice beat Velké Meziříčí 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Petřkovice in Ostrava.