Velké Meziříčí 1–0 Dálnice Speřice: Result & Stats

Velké Meziříčí

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dálnice Speřice

3/7/2026

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Velké Meziříčí57%

×Draw22%

Dálnice Speřice22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velké MeziříčíExpected goals in this matchDálnice Speřice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.16

Velké Meziříčí

2.01

Dálnice Speřice

1.16

Velké Meziříčí creates 73% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

1.44

creates per match

0.62

1.69

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí

1.44

Dálnice Speřice

0.62

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí

1.69

Dálnice Speřice

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Dálnice Speřice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw

78%

Velké Meziříčí or Dálnice Speřice

78%

Draw or Dálnice Speřice

43%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+

34%

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals

87%

Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals

59%

Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals

32%

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals

69%

Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals

32%

Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)

72%

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Dálnice Speřice away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.44 + Dálnice Speřice defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dálnice Speřice attack 0.62 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more

57%

level

22%

Dálnice Speřice scores more

22%

Velké Meziříčí at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff