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Dálnice Speřice vs Velké Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
FT
0 – 2
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
3/17/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 17Hřiště TJ Speřice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dálnice Speřice43%
×Draw24%
Velké Meziříčí34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dálnice Speřice
1.66
Velké Meziříčí
1.45

Dálnice Speřice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.41
Velké Meziříčí
1.33

allows per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.57
Velké Meziříčí
1.91

finishing

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dálnice Speřice ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dálnice Speřice or draw
66%
Dálnice Speřice or Velké Meziříčí
76%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
57%

Winning margin

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
22%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
81%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
49%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
23%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
77%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
42%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
56%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dálnice Speřice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dálnice Speřice attack 1.41 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.33 + Dálnice Speřice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dálnice Speřice scores more
43%
level
24%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
34%

Dálnice Speřice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dálnice Speřice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Dálnice Speřice 0–2 Velké Meziříčí

Velké Meziříčí beat Dálnice Speřice 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Speřice in Jiřice.