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Velké Meziříčí vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Břeclav
Břeclav
4/18/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 22Stadión U Tržiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Velké Meziříčí48%
×Draw23%
Břeclav29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Meziříčí
1.79
Břeclav
1.36

Velké Meziříčí creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.44
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.69
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw
71%
Velké Meziříčí or Břeclav
77%
Draw or Břeclav
52%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
26%
Břeclav wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
83%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
53%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
26%
Břeclav 1+ goals
74%
Břeclav 2+ goals
39%
Břeclav 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
62%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.44 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.79

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more
48%
level
23%
Břeclav scores more
29%

Velké Meziříčí at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velké Meziříčí vs Břeclav

Velké Meziříčí and Břeclav drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadión U Tržiště in Velké Meziříčí.