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Břeclav vs Velké Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Břeclav
Břeclav
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
6/15/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 30Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Břeclav45%
×Draw24%
Velké Meziříčí31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břeclav
1.65
Velké Meziříčí
1.35

Břeclav creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 45 away

creates per match

Břeclav
1.39
Velké Meziříčí
1.33

allows per match

Břeclav
1.36
Velké Meziříčí
1.91

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw
69%
Břeclav or Velké Meziříčí
76%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
55%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+
23%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals
81%
Břeclav 2+ goals
49%
Břeclav 3+ goals
23%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
74%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
39%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)
59%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.33 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Břeclav scores more
45%
level
24%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
31%

Břeclav at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Břeclav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Břeclav 2–1 Velké Meziříčí

Břeclav beat Velké Meziříčí 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lesní ulice in Břeclav.