Veľké Ludince 2–3 Sereď: Result & Stats

Veľké Ludince

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Sereď

5/18/2025

3. liga - West · West - 32Štadión TJ Družstevník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Veľké Ludince39%

×Draw27%

Sereď34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veľké LudinceExpected goals in this matchSereď

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Veľké Ludince

1.33

Sereď

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

1.65

creates per match

1.46

0.99

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Veľké Ludince

1.65

Sereď

1.46

allows per match

Veľké Ludince

0.99

Sereď

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Sereď →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw

66%

Veľké Ludince or Sereď

73%

Draw or Sereď

61%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+

18%

Sereď wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals

74%

Veľké Ludince 2+ goals

38%

Veľké Ludince 3+ goals

15%

Sereď 1+ goals

71%

Sereď 2+ goals

35%

Sereď 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)

53%

Sereď (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Sereď defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sereď attack 1.46 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more

39%

level

27%

Sereď scores more

34%

Veľké Ludince at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff