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Sereď vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Sereď
Sereď
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
11/9/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Športový futbalový štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sereď67%
×Draw19%
Veľké Ludince14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sereď
2.23
Veľké Ludince
0.90

Sereď creates 148% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sereď
2.40
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Sereď
0.80
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sereď or draw
86%
Sereď or Veľké Ludince
81%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
33%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+
44%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals
89%
Sereď 2+ goals
65%
Sereď 3+ goals
38%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
59%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
23%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)
83%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.23

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sereď scores more
67%
level
19%
Veľké Ludince scores more
14%

Sereď at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Sereď 1–1 Veľké Ludince

Sereď and Veľké Ludince drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Športový futbalový štadión Sereď in Sereď.