Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veľké Ludince vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
CANC
15:00
Nitra II
Nitra II
6/20/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Ludince63%
×Draw21%
Nitra II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
2.04
Nitra II
0.93

Veľké Ludince creates 119% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
84%
Veľké Ludince or Nitra II
79%
Draw or Nitra II
37%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
39%
Nitra II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
87%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
60%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
33%
Nitra II 1+ goals
61%
Nitra II 2+ goals
24%
Nitra II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
79%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
63%
level
21%
Nitra II scores more
16%

Veľké Ludince at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veľké Ludince face Nitra II (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Veľké Ludince hosting Nitra II. Match starts June 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.