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Nitra II vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra II
Nitra II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
6/27/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nitra II54%
×Draw20%
Veľké Ludince26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra II
2.32
Veľké Ludince
1.57

Nitra II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nitra II
2.57
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Nitra II
2.14
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Nitra II+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra II ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Nitra II or draw
74%
Nitra II or Veľké Ludince
80%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
46%

Winning margin

Nitra II wins by 2+
33%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nitra II 1+ goals
90%
Nitra II 2+ goals
67%
Nitra II 3+ goals
40%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
79%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
46%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nitra II (draw refunded)
68%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra II attack 2.57 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.32

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Nitra II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nitra II scores more
54%
level
20%
Veľké Ludince scores more
26%

Nitra II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nitra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Nitra II 5–1 Veľké Ludince

Nitra II beat Veľké Ludince 5-1 in 3. liga - West on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión pod Zoborom in Nitra.