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Veľké Ludince vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
3 – 1
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
3/24/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 19Štadión TJ Družstevník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Veľké Ludince40%
×Draw27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
1.32
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.16

Veľké Ludince creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
67%
Veľké Ludince or Lokomotíva Zvolen
73%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
60%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
18%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
73%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
38%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
15%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
69%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
32%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
55%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
40%
level
27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
33%

Veľké Ludince at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Veľké Ludince 3–1 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Veľké Ludince beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 3-1 in 3. liga - West on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Družstevník in Veľké Ludince.