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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
8/26/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 4Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen62%
×Draw21%
Veľké Ludince17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
2.04
Veľké Ludince
0.97

Lokomotíva Zvolen creates 110% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
2.00
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.93
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
83%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Veľké Ludince
79%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
38%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
38%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
60%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
33%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
62%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
25%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
78%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 2.00 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
62%
level
21%
Veľké Ludince scores more
17%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Veľké Ludince

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Veľké Ludince 3-2 in 3. liga - West on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.