Veľké Ludince 3–0 Lednické Rovne: Result & Stats

Veľké Ludince

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lednické Rovne

4/20/2022

3. liga - West · West - 21Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Veľké Ludince55%

×Draw24%

Lednické Rovne20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veľké LudinceExpected goals in this matchLednické Rovne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.91

Veľké Ludince

1.68

Lednické Rovne

0.91

Veľké Ludince creates 85% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 24 away

1.65

creates per match

0.83

0.99

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Veľké Ludince

1.65

Lednické Rovne

0.83

allows per match

Veľké Ludince

0.99

Lednické Rovne

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Lednické Rovne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw

80%

Veľké Ludince or Lednické Rovne

76%

Draw or Lednické Rovne

45%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+

30%

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals

81%

Veľké Ludince 2+ goals

50%

Veľké Ludince 3+ goals

24%

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals

60%

Lednické Rovne 2+ goals

23%

Lednické Rovne 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)

73%

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more

55%

level

24%

Lednické Rovne scores more

20%

Veľké Ludince at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff