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Lednické Rovne vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
CANC
14:00
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
4/18/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 21Štadion FK Marcelová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne40%
×Draw24%
Veľké Ludince35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.55
Veľké Ludince
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
65%
Lednické Rovne or Veľké Ludince
76%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
60%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
20%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
79%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
46%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
20%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
76%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
42%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
53%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.55

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
40%
level
24%
Veľké Ludince scores more
35%

Lednické Rovne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lednické Rovne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lednické Rovne host Veľké Ludince

April 18, 2021: Lednické Rovne take on Veľké Ludince in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lednické Rovne host Veľké Ludince at Štadion FK Marcelová.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.