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Veľké Ludince vs Imeľ — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
3 – 0
Imeľ
Imeľ
9/5/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 5Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Veľké Ludince57%
×Draw24%
Imeľ19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Imeľ
0.83

Veľké Ludince creates 99% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 25 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Imeľ
0.68

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Imeľ
1.64

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Imeľ+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Imeľ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
81%
Veľké Ludince or Imeľ
76%
Draw or Imeľ
43%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
31%
Imeľ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
81%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
49%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
23%
Imeľ 1+ goals
56%
Imeľ 2+ goals
20%
Imeľ 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
75%
Imeľ (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Imeľ away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Imeľ defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Imeľ attack 0.68 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
57%
level
24%
Imeľ scores more
19%

Veľké Ludince at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Veľké Ludince 3–0 Imeľ

Veľké Ludince beat Imeľ 3-0 in 3. liga - West on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince in Veľké Ludince.