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Imeľ vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
0 – 0
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
8/16/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 2Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ49%
×Draw24%
Veľké Ludince26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.66
Veľké Ludince
1.15

Imeľ creates 44% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 84 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
74%
Imeľ or Veľké Ludince
76%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
51%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
26%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
81%
Imeľ 2+ goals
49%
Imeľ 3+ goals
23%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
68%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
32%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
65%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.66

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Imeľ scores more
49%
level
24%
Veľké Ludince scores more
26%

Imeľ at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Imeľ 0–0 Veľké Ludince

Imeľ and Veľké Ludince drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ in Imeľ.