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Veľké Ludince vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
6/8/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 30Štadión TJ Družstevník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Veľké Ludince49%
×Draw24%
Fomat Martin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Fomat Martin
1.14

Veľké Ludince creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Fomat Martin
1.28

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Fomat Martin
1.65

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
74%
Veľké Ludince or Fomat Martin
76%
Draw or Fomat Martin
51%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
26%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
81%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
49%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
23%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
68%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
32%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
65%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Fomat Martin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fomat Martin attack 1.28 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
49%
level
24%
Fomat Martin scores more
26%

Veľké Ludince at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veľké Ludince vs Fomat Martin

Veľké Ludince and Fomat Martin drew 2-2 in 3. liga - West on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Družstevník in Veľké Ludince.