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Fomat Martin vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
11/16/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Športový park Pltníky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fomat Martin54%
×Draw22%
Veľké Ludince23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fomat Martin
1.92
Veľké Ludince
1.18

Fomat Martin creates 63% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

creates per match

Fomat Martin
1.76
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Fomat Martin
1.36
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw
77%
Fomat Martin or Veľké Ludince
78%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
46%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+
31%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals
85%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
57%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
30%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
69%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
33%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
70%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 1.76 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Fomat Martin defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fomat Martin scores more
54%
level
22%
Veľké Ludince scores more
23%

Fomat Martin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fomat Martin vs Veľké Ludince

Fomat Martin and Veľké Ludince drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Športový park Pltníky in Martin-Záturčie.