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Veľké Ludince vs Dubnica — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dubnica
Dubnica
4/7/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 21Štadión TJ Družstevník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Veľké Ludince70%
×Draw17%
Dubnica13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
2.49
Dubnica
0.96

Veľké Ludince creates 159% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Dubnica
0.93

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Dubnica
3.33

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
87%
Veľké Ludince or Dubnica
83%
Draw or Dubnica
30%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
48%
Dubnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
92%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
71%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
45%
Dubnica 1+ goals
62%
Dubnica 2+ goals
25%
Dubnica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
85%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Dubnica away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Dubnica defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.49

Dubnica attack 0.93 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
70%
level
17%
Dubnica scores more
13%

Veľké Ludince at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veľké Ludince vs Dubnica

Veľké Ludince beat Dubnica 4-1 in 3. liga - West on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Družstevník in Veľké Ludince.