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Dubnica vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
9/10/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubnica34%
×Draw23%
Veľké Ludince43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.53
Veľké Ludince
1.76

Veľké Ludince creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.00
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Dubnica
2.53
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
57%
Dubnica or Veľké Ludince
77%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
66%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
16%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
78%
Dubnica 2+ goals
45%
Dubnica 3+ goals
20%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
83%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
52%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
44%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.00 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.53

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Dubnica defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dubnica scores more
34%
level
23%
Veľké Ludince scores more
43%

Veľké Ludince at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubnica vs Veľké Ludince

Dubnica beat Veľké Ludince 4-2 in 3. liga - West on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.