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Velké Hamry vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
FT
4 – 0
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
10/12/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 10Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry (Velké Hamry)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Velké Hamry79%
×Draw12%
Sparta Kutná Hora9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Hamry
3.31
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.06

Velké Hamry creates 212% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 27 away

creates per match

Velké Hamry
2.69
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Velké Hamry
1.05
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw
91%
Velké Hamry or Sparta Kutná Hora
88%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
21%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+
61%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals
96%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
83%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
62%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
65%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
29%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
90%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.31

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Velké Hamry scores more
79%
level
12%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
9%

Velké Hamry at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Velké Hamry 4–0 Sparta Kutná Hora

Velké Hamry beat Sparta Kutná Hora 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry (Velké Hamry).