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Sparta Kutná Hora vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
FT
2 – 0
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
9/28/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 15Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora32%
×Draw23%
Velké Hamry46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.48
Velké Hamry
1.82

Velké Hamry creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.54
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.88
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw
54%
Sparta Kutná Hora or Velké Hamry
77%
Draw or Velké Hamry
68%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
15%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
77%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
43%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
19%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
84%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
54%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
41%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
32%
level
23%
Velké Hamry scores more
46%

Velké Hamry at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Sparta Kutná Hora 2–0 Velké Hamry

Sparta Kutná Hora beat Velké Hamry 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora in Kutná Hora.