Velké Hamry 6–1 Poříčany: Result & Stats

Velké Hamry

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Poříčany

6/5/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 28Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Velké Hamry73%

×Draw15%

Poříčany11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velké HamryExpected goals in this matchPoříčany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

0.99

Velké Hamry

2.73

Poříčany

0.99

Velké Hamry creates 176% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

2.69

creates per match

0.92

1.05

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Velké Hamry

2.69

Poříčany

0.92

allows per match

Velké Hamry

1.05

Poříčany

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Poříčany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw

89%

Velké Hamry or Poříčany

85%

Draw or Poříčany

27%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+

52%

Poříčany wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals

93%

Velké Hamry 2+ goals

75%

Velké Hamry 3+ goals

50%

Poříčany 1+ goals

63%

Poříčany 2+ goals

26%

Poříčany 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)

87%

Poříčany (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.73

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Velké Hamry scores more

73%

level

15%

Poříčany scores more

11%

Velké Hamry at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff