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Poříčany vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Poříčany
Poříčany
CANC
15:00
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
5/8/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 23Poříčany - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Poříčany33%
×Draw23%
Velké Hamry44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poříčany
1.51
Velké Hamry
1.79

Velké Hamry creates 19% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 53 away

creates per match

Poříčany
1.60
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Poříčany
1.80
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw
56%
Poříčany or Velké Hamry
77%
Draw or Velké Hamry
67%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+
15%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals
78%
Poříčany 2+ goals
44%
Poříčany 3+ goals
19%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
83%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
53%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)
42%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.51

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Poříčany scores more
33%
level
23%
Velké Hamry scores more
44%

Velké Hamry at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poříčany host Velké Hamry

May 8, 2021: Poříčany take on Velké Hamry in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poříčany host Velké Hamry at Poříčany - tráva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.