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Velké Hamry vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
FT
6 – 0
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
10/26/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 12Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry (Velké Hamry)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Velké Hamry72%
×Draw16%
Horky nad Jizerou12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Hamry
2.67
Horky nad Jizerou
1.00

Velké Hamry creates 167% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

creates per match

Velké Hamry
2.69
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Velké Hamry
1.05
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw
88%
Velké Hamry or Horky nad Jizerou
84%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
28%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+
51%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals
93%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
74%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
49%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
63%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
26%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
86%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.67

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Velké Hamry scores more
72%
level
16%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
12%

Velké Hamry at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Velké Hamry 6 – 0 Horky nad Jizerou

Velké Hamry beat Horky nad Jizerou 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry (Velké Hamry).