Horky nad Jizerou 0–1 Velké Hamry: Result & Stats

Horky nad Jizerou

FT

0 – 1

Velké Hamry

8/8/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 2Hřiště FC Horky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou39%

×Draw23%

Velké Hamry38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horky nad JizerouExpected goals in this matchVelké Hamry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.71

Horky nad Jizerou

1.73

Velké Hamry

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 53 away

2.04

creates per match

1.77

1.64

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou

2.04

Velké Hamry

1.77

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou

1.64

Velké Hamry

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Velké Hamry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw

62%

Horky nad Jizerou or Velké Hamry

77%

Draw or Velké Hamry

61%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

20%

Velké Hamry wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

82%

Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

52%

Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

25%

Velké Hamry 1+ goals

82%

Velké Hamry 2+ goals

51%

Velké Hamry 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

51%

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.73

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more

39%

level

23%

Velké Hamry scores more

38%

Horky nad Jizerou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Horky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff