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Velké Hamry vs Dobrovice — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dobrovice
Dobrovice
10/16/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 11Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Velké Hamry70%
×Draw17%
Dobrovice13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Hamry
2.42
Dobrovice
0.94

Velké Hamry creates 157% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 46 away

creates per match

Velké Hamry
2.69
Dobrovice
0.83

allows per match

Velké Hamry
1.05
Dobrovice
2.15

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par
Dobrovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Dobrovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw
87%
Velké Hamry or Dobrovice
83%
Draw or Dobrovice
30%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+
47%
Dobrovice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals
91%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
69%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
43%
Dobrovice 1+ goals
61%
Dobrovice 2+ goals
24%
Dobrovice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
84%
Dobrovice (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Dobrovice away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Dobrovice defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.42

Dobrovice attack 0.83 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Velké Hamry scores more
70%
level
17%
Dobrovice scores more
13%

Velké Hamry at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velké Hamry vs Dobrovice

Velké Hamry beat Dobrovice 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry in Velké Hamry.