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Dobrovice vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dobrovice
Dobrovice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
5/13/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 26Městský stadion FK Dobrovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Dobrovice31%
×Draw24%
Velké Hamry45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrovice
1.36
Velké Hamry
1.69

Velké Hamry creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 53 away

creates per match

Dobrovice
1.30
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Dobrovice
1.61
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Dobrovice+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrovice ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dobrovice or draw
55%
Dobrovice or Velké Hamry
76%
Draw or Velké Hamry
69%

Winning margin

Dobrovice wins by 2+
14%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dobrovice 1+ goals
74%
Dobrovice 2+ goals
39%
Dobrovice 3+ goals
16%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
82%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
50%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dobrovice (draw refunded)
41%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrovice at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrovice attack 1.30 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Dobrovice defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dobrovice scores more
31%
level
24%
Velké Hamry scores more
45%

Velké Hamry at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobrovice vs Velké Hamry

Dobrovice and Velké Hamry drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion FK Dobrovice in Dobrovice.