Velké Hamry 4–1 Cidlina Novy Bydzov: Result & Stats

Velké Hamry

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

9/3/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 5Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Velké Hamry62%

×Draw19%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velké HamryExpected goals in this matchCidlina Novy Bydzov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.18

Velké Hamry

2.31

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.18

Velké Hamry creates 96% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

2.69

creates per match

1.30

1.05

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Velké Hamry

2.69

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.30

allows per match

Velké Hamry

1.05

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw

82%

Velké Hamry or Cidlina Novy Bydzov

81%

Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov

38%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+

40%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals

90%

Velké Hamry 2+ goals

67%

Velké Hamry 3+ goals

40%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals

69%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals

33%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)

77%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Velké Hamry scores more

62%

level

19%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more

18%

Velké Hamry at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff