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Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
10/29/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 13Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov34%
×Draw24%
Velké Hamry42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.42
Velké Hamry
1.60

Velké Hamry creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw
58%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Velké Hamry
76%
Draw or Velké Hamry
66%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
16%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
76%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
41%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
17%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
80%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
47%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
45%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
34%
level
24%
Velké Hamry scores more
42%

Velké Hamry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Velké Hamry

Velké Hamry beat Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Nový Bydžov.