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Velká Bíteš vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
4/26/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 23Fotbalový Stadión Velká Bíteš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Velká Bíteš66%
×Draw18%
Slavoj Polná16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velká Bíteš
2.44
Slavoj Polná
1.12

Velká Bíteš creates 118% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 54 away

creates per match

Velká Bíteš
1.67
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Velká Bíteš
1.28
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Velká Bíteš+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velká Bíteš ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Velká Bíteš or draw
84%
Velká Bíteš or Slavoj Polná
82%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
34%

Winning margin

Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
44%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
91%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
70%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
43%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
67%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
31%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
81%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velká Bíteš at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velká Bíteš attack 1.67 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Velká Bíteš scores more
66%
level
18%
Slavoj Polná scores more
16%

Velká Bíteš at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Velká Bíteš 3–3 Slavoj Polná

Velká Bíteš and Slavoj Polná drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadión Velká Bíteš in Velká Bíteš.