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Slavoj Polná vs Velká Bíteš — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
8/6/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná23%
×Draw21%
Velká Bíteš56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.27
Velká Bíteš
2.10

Velká Bíteš creates 65% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 82 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Velká Bíteš
1.70

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Velká Bíteš
1.72

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Velká Bíteš+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Velká Bíteš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
44%
Slavoj Polná or Velká Bíteš
79%
Draw or Velká Bíteš
77%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
9%
Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
72%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
36%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
14%
Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
88%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
62%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
29%
Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Velká Bíteš away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.72 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Velká Bíteš attack 1.70 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
23%
level
21%
Velká Bíteš scores more
56%

Velká Bíteš at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Slavoj Polná 2–1 Velká Bíteš

Slavoj Polná beat Velká Bíteš 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Slavoj Polná in Polná.