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Velká Bíteš vs Havlíčkův Brod — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
4/3/20264. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Velká Bíteš46%
×Draw24%
Havlíčkův Brod30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velká Bíteš
1.65
Havlíčkův Brod
1.30

Velká Bíteš creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 80 away

creates per match

Velká Bíteš
1.67
Havlíčkův Brod
1.32

allows per match

Velká Bíteš
1.28
Havlíčkův Brod
1.63

finishing

Velká Bíteš+0.00on par
Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velká Bíteš ↓

Havlíčkův Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Velká Bíteš or draw
70%
Velká Bíteš or Havlíčkův Brod
76%
Draw or Havlíčkův Brod
54%

Winning margin

Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
24%
Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
81%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
49%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
23%
Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
73%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
37%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
60%
Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velká Bíteš at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Havlíčkův Brod away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velká Bíteš attack 1.67 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.32 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Velká Bíteš scores more
46%
level
24%
Havlíčkův Brod scores more
30%

Velká Bíteš at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velká Bíteš vs Havlíčkův Brod

Velká Bíteš beat Havlíčkův Brod 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 3, 2026.