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Havlíčkův Brod vs Velká Bíteš — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
6/14/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 30Stadion Na Losích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Havlíčkův Brod41%
×Draw23%
Velká Bíteš36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havlíčkův Brod
1.71
Velká Bíteš
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

creates per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.71
Velká Bíteš
1.70

allows per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.49
Velká Bíteš
1.72

finishing

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par
Velká Bíteš+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havlíčkův Brod ↓

Velká Bíteš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Havlíčkův Brod or draw
64%
Havlíčkův Brod or Velká Bíteš
77%
Draw or Velká Bíteš
59%

Winning margin

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
21%
Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
82%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
51%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
24%
Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
80%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
47%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
53%
Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havlíčkův Brod at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Velká Bíteš away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.72 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.71 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Velká Bíteš attack 1.70 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Havlíčkův Brod scores more
41%
level
23%
Velká Bíteš scores more
36%

Havlíčkův Brod at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Havlíčkův Brod 2–0 Velká Bíteš

Havlíčkův Brod beat Velká Bíteš 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Na Losích in Havlíčkův Brod.