Velež 1–1 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

Velež

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tuzla City

3/11/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 22Stadion Rođeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Velež51%

×Draw26%

Tuzla City23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeležExpected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.96

Velež

1.55

Tuzla City

0.96

Velež creates 61% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 78 away

1.51

creates per match

1.04

0.88

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Velež

1.51

Tuzla City

1.04

allows per match

Velež

0.88

Tuzla City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velež+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Velež or draw

77%

Velež or Tuzla City

74%

Draw or Tuzla City

49%

Winning margin

Velež wins by 2+

26%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Velež 1+ goals

79%

Velež 2+ goals

46%

Velež 3+ goals

20%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

62%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

25%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Velež (draw refunded)

69%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež attack 1.51 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tuzla City attack 1.04 + Velež defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Velež scores more

51%

level

26%

Tuzla City scores more

23%

Velež at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff