Tuzla City 1–5 Velež: Result & Stats

Tuzla City

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Velež

5/24/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 33Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tuzla City42%

×Draw27%

Velež31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuzla CityExpected goals in this matchVelež

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.14

Tuzla City

1.36

Velež

1.14

Tuzla City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 111 away

1.57

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tuzla City

1.57

Velež

1.07

allows per match

Tuzla City

1.20

Velež

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Velež+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Velež →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw

69%

Tuzla City or Velež

73%

Draw or Velež

58%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+

19%

Velež wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals

74%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

39%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

16%

Velež 1+ goals

68%

Velež 2+ goals

32%

Velež 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

57%

Velež (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Velež away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.16 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Velež defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Velež attack 1.07 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tuzla City scores more

42%

level

27%

Velež scores more

31%

Tuzla City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff