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Velež vs Posušje — Premijer Liga 2019

Velež
Velež
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Posušje
Posušje
3/6/2026Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 24Stadion Rodjeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Velež54%
×Draw26%
Posušje20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež
1.52
Posušje
0.80

Velež creates 90% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 85 away

creates per match

Velež
1.51
Posušje
0.73

allows per match

Velež
0.88
Posušje
1.52

finishing

Velež+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Velež or draw
80%
Velež or Posušje
74%
Draw or Posušje
46%

Winning margin

Velež wins by 2+
28%
Posušje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Velež 1+ goals
78%
Velež 2+ goals
45%
Velež 3+ goals
20%
Posušje 1+ goals
55%
Posušje 2+ goals
19%
Posušje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Velež (draw refunded)
73%
Posušje (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež attack 1.51 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Posušje attack 0.73 + Velež defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Velež scores more
54%
level
26%
Posušje scores more
20%

Velež at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Velež 1–0 Posušje

Velež beat Posušje 1-0 in Premijer Liga on March 6, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Rodjeni in Mostar.