Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Posušje vs Velež — Premijer Liga 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Velež
Velež
11/23/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 15Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Posušje39%
×Draw29%
Velež31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
1.15
Velež
1.00

Posušje creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 111 away

creates per match

Posušje
1.14
Velež
1.07

allows per match

Posušje
0.93
Velež
1.16

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
Velež+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Velež →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
69%
Posušje or Velež
71%
Draw or Velež
61%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
16%
Velež wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
68%
Posušje 2+ goals
32%
Posušje 3+ goals
11%
Velež 1+ goals
63%
Velež 2+ goals
26%
Velež 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
55%
Velež (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Velež away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.16 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + Velež defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Velež attack 1.07 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Posušje scores more
39%
level
29%
Velež scores more
31%

Posušje at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Posušje 0–0 Velež

Posušje and Velež drew 0-0 in Premijer Liga on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac.