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Vélez vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 20Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez51%
×Draw25%
Polideportivo Almería24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.64
Polideportivo Almería
1.05

Vélez creates 56% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 63 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Polideportivo Almería
0.84

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Polideportivo Almería
1.86

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Polideportivo Almería →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
76%
Vélez or Polideportivo Almería
75%
Draw or Polideportivo Almería
49%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
27%
Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
81%
Vélez 2+ goals
49%
Vélez 3+ goals
23%
Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
65%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
28%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
68%
Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.64

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vélez scores more
51%
level
25%
Polideportivo Almería scores more
24%

Vélez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Vélez 1–2 Polideportivo Almería

Polideportivo Almería beat Vélez 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.