Polideportivo Almería 0–3 Vélez: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vélez

8/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 1Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Polideportivo Almería42%

×Draw26%

Vélez32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchVélez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Polideportivo Almería

1.44

Vélez

1.23

Polideportivo Almería creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 26 away

1.26

creates per match

1.19

1.27

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Vélez

1.19

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Vélez

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Vélez →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

68%

Polideportivo Almería or Vélez

74%

Draw or Vélez

58%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

20%

Vélez wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

76%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

42%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

18%

Vélez 1+ goals

71%

Vélez 2+ goals

35%

Vélez 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

57%

Vélez (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vélez attack 1.19 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

42%

level

26%

Vélez scores more

32%

Polideportivo Almería at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 0–3 Vélez

Vélez beat Polideportivo Almería 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Vélez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 0–3 Vélez