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Velež vs Olimpik Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Velež
Velež
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
12/5/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 18Stadion Rođeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Velež64%
×Draw23%
Olimpik Sarajevo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež
1.69
Olimpik Sarajevo
0.58

Velež creates 191% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

Velež
1.51
Olimpik Sarajevo
0.29

allows per match

Velež
0.88
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.88

finishing

Velež+0.00on par
Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Velež or draw
88%
Velež or Olimpik Sarajevo
77%
Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo
36%

Winning margin

Velež wins by 2+
37%
Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Velež 1+ goals
82%
Velež 2+ goals
50%
Velež 3+ goals
24%
Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
44%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
12%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Velež (draw refunded)
84%
Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež attack 1.51 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 0.29 + Velež defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Velež scores more
64%
level
23%
Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
12%

Velež at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velež vs Olimpik Sarajevo

Velež beat Olimpik Sarajevo 2-0 in Premijer Liga on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rođeni in Mostar.