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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Velež — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Velež
Velež
9/12/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 7Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo33%
×Draw27%
Velež40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.15
Velež
1.30

Velež creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Velež
1.07

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Velež
1.16

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Velež+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Velež →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
60%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Velež
73%
Draw or Velež
67%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
13%
Velež wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
68%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
32%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
11%
Velež 1+ goals
73%
Velež 2+ goals
37%
Velež 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
45%
Velež (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Velež away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.16 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Velež defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Velež attack 1.07 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
33%
level
27%
Velež scores more
40%

Velež at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Olimpik Sarajevo 2–1 Velež

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Velež 2-1 in Premijer Liga on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.