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Vélez vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
2/27/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez30%
×Draw27%
Juventud Torremolinos44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.11
Juventud Torremolinos
1.40

Juventud Torremolinos creates 26% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
56%
Vélez or Juventud Torremolinos
73%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
70%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
12%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
67%
Vélez 2+ goals
30%
Vélez 3+ goals
10%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
75%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
41%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
41%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vélez scores more
30%
level
27%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
44%

Juventud Torremolinos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vélez vs Juventud Torremolinos

Vélez and Juventud Torremolinos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.